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Atlanta Falcons to Win Super Bowl – 12:1 odds – (level 2) – I know all about the Super Bowl handover but it’s hard for me to not look at the most talented team in the league, in a weakened NFC and not like these odds.
Atlanta Falcons to Win NFL South – + 175 – (level 3) – For all the same reasons above I think they take this division.
Atlanta Falcons to Win Over 9 games – (level 3) – Yup I like Atlanta this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers to Win AFC North – -200 – (level 3) – This is as much about the lack of quality in the division as it is the Steelers themselves. The Ravens are banged up, the Bengals defense is a mess, and the Browns are well … the Browns.
Tennessee Titans + +180 to Win AFC South – + 180 – (level 3) – I love this Titans team.I actually threw a few bucks on them to win it all at crazy odds after the big game to Win the Super Bowl 50:1. Mariota doesn’t make mistakes, their running game is great, they now have added weapons. This defense should be good enough to hold up.
Seattle Seahawks to Win NFC West – -240 – (level 3) – Once again this is a lot about the inefficiency of the Rams, Niners, and health of the Cards as much as it is the Hawks. I love Wilson healthy and think their D has one more prime year.
Baltimore Ravens Under 9 Wins – (level 3) – Too many injuries for this team to be taken serious.
New York Jets Under 4 1/2 Wins – (level 4) – There is no way this Jets team wins 5 games, maybe not 3, heck maybe not 1. I’m honestly not sure they even want to win games.
College Football Futures http://sugarfreefit.com/?map10
Wisconsin Badgers to Win Big 10 – (+400) – (level 2) – I am really high on this Wisky team and avoiding most of the big boys in the conference should get them to at least the title game. Once in that game against the obvious favorite you can hedge or ride with this great value.
Wisconsin Badgers to Win Big 10 Leaders – (+175) – (level 3) –
Washington Huskies to Win Pac 12 – (+250) – (level 2) – Everyone loves Darnold and USC or Rosen and UCLA but it was Browning who was the all conference first team QB last season and the Huskies playing in the football playoff. With these odds I’m betting on Petersen
Alabama to Win SEC – (-150) – (level 4) – This seems like free money. Look the Tide may not be a team I like or back up usually but they should cruise in the now weakened SEC.
Florida State to Win ACC – (+110) – (level 4) – Somehow no one is talking about the best defense in the country. FSU has the best safety, corner, and two of the best defensive lineman in the country. I think the offense can be good enough but it’s the D that should beat teams up.
Florida State to Win National Championship – (+900) – (level 2) –
Sam Darnold to Win the Heisman – (+400) – (level 2) – I am a big believer in Darnold and with the hype USC is getting he can slip up a little and still win this
Navy Midshipman to Win Over 7 games – (even money) -(level 3) – The Midshipman don’t rebuild they reload and this team looks really loaded this year. We know they can run the ball and the new QB can even go downfield. Navy should get 7 but could ease into 9-10.
Houston Astros to win World Series 15:1 odds – (level 2) – Look the reality is I think the Indians are the best team in the AL but these odds are so hard to pass up. I expect the young guys to take a step up, McCullers healthy will be huge and the additions are vets that will help.
For the NL side of things it’s hard to go against the Cubs but at just 4:1 odds why touch it. Washington will be tough, San Fran and LA will be there but if you want great value try the Rockies 50:1 odds.
Dansby Swanson to win NL Rookie of the year – 4:1 odds – (level 3) – This is one of those players that the writers who vote on this award drool over. “He does the little things” which won’t get overlooked. An all around player on an up and coming team, in a new stadium and already has 129 at bats.
Corey Kluber to win AL Cy Young – 12:1 odds – (level 2) – I know everyone is drooling over Sale but Kluber’s team is stacked and he has a dominant pen to keep his leads. I expect close to 20 wins and top 3 in K’s that’ll be enough to secure this award.
Colorado Rockies Over 79 Wins – (level 4) – Well this is my team this year. The Rockies have as good of an offense as anyone and now that Story is healthy it only adds to it. What I like though is a pitching guru takes over as manager and Gray, Chatwood, and Anderson will benefit but don’t overlook a suddenly stacked bullpen either.
Tampa Bay Rays Under 78 1/2 Wins – (level 3) – What have we seen this offseason to believe this team would be 10 games better than last year? Add in the impending Chris Archer deal or another arm and I am take way under here.
Minnesota Twins Under 75 1/2 Wins – (level 3) – Once again what has anyone seen to think these Twins take the leap? Their bullpen is awful and awful would be a nice word for their starting pitching.
NCAA Futures –
Duke Blue Devils to Win NCAA Championship – 4:1 odds – (level 2) – Duke is loaded and this might be the most talented team under coach K which is saying something. Nothing fancy this year as the best team should run the table.
Kansas Jayhawks to Win Big 10 Conference – Even money – (level 4) – Death, taxes and Kansas winning the Big 10. I have made money on this every year for about a decade now and certainly won’t stop now.
NBA FUTURES :
Pre NBA Finals – Warriors to beat Clevelans – 260 – (level 3) – Warriors may not lose a game this Finals and no game may get within 10 points. I’ll say Cleveland steals on game but either way Golden State cruses
NFL Football Futures
Seattle Seahawks to Win the SuperBowl – 8:1 odds – (level 2) – I love Seattle this year despite the offensive line issues. Wilson looked like a man possessed in the new offense and it should continue here with a solid as usual D.
Arizona Cardinals to Win the SuperBowl – 12:1 odds – (level 2) – The Cards are so tempting to run away with the league but Palmer in the playoffs is always a worry. That say a healthy HoneyBadger makes all the difference and add in the pass rushers they added this team is stacked and them or Seattle will get a home field game.
Russell Wilson to Win the NFL MVP award – 9:1 odds – (level 2) – Wilson was insane last year late when they finally opened up the offense. Add in Lockett’s explosiveness and anything from Graham and he should thrive.
Green Bay Packers to Win the NFC North – -300 odds – (level 3) – Chicago is all banged up and a year or two away, Detroit lost their best player and Minnesota is without a QB. This is Green Bay’s division with ease.
Carolina Panthers to Win the NFC South – – 240 odds – (level 3) – The Panthers might have lost Norman but this team just has talent galore all over the field. The Saints have no D, neither does Atlanta and Tampa is a year away.
Jacksonville Jaguars to Win Over 7 1/2 games – (level 2) – I’ve been high on Jacksonville for a while and if you watched that offense you know why. Now add in massive defensive upgrades and Ivory this team gets to .500
New York Jets to Win Over 7 1/2 games – (level 3) – What’s not to like here. 26 TD’s between two WR’s, an all-pro QB, Matt Forte running the ball and possibly the best defense in the league. A tough schedule but I see close to 10 wins.
San Francisco 49ers to Win Under 6 games – (level 4) – And the #1 pick in the draft belongs to … ok well maybe Cleveland but the Niners are really bad. Gabbert is better than Kaep but what’s that saying. They take on Seattle and Zona 4 times, Rams twice and might now get a single win in division.
College Football Futures
Alabama Crimson Tide Over 10 wins – (level 5) – I am no fan of the SEC, no fan of Alabama but I know a winner when I see one. The Tide would have to lose 3 games for this to go under. Sure you might push in a very bad season for the Tide but 11 wins seems likely and at worst a push.
Houston Cougars to win American Conference – 1:1 odds – (level 4) – The Cougars schedule just works perfectly this season. Sure they have a tough non conference opener but that doesn’t matter for the conference and even with one loss in conference they should still play for the title game.
Washington Huskies to win Pac 12 – 4:1 odds – (level 2) – The schedule makers just smiled upon this team this year. They also played a ton of freshman and soph’s last season so the development, schedule and QB play will all be a nice underdog winner.
LSU Tigers to win SEC – 3:1 odds – (level 2) – Basically this bet is against Alabama who has a freshman QB, two brand new RB’s, a ton of new faces in other places and will have to travel down to the Bayou.
Florida State Seminoles to win National Championship 13:1 odds – (level 2) – This team is absolutely stacked. Sure they lost some talent but Cook is back and healthy, the defense looks as strong as ever and the QB that is taking over has ore talent than the original starter. Great odds here and they get Clemson at home.
Dalvin Cook to win Heisman 12:1 odds – (level 2) – Cook was better than Fournette last year when he was healthy. In a banged up season with a gimpy leg Cook was still a beast. If FSU is as good as advertised he will be the reason why and the stats will be eye popping.
NBA Futures –
(Remember we still have the Celtics and Heat Pending Futures)
Golden State Warriors to lose Under 6 1/2 games in the playoffs – (level 4) – This one is simple for me, I just can’t see this team losing 7 games in the playoffs unless they really are unfocused early. If you believe in what the Warriors have done this year this is a no brainer but even if you think the Spurs beat them that’s 4 losses, try and find me 3 more in the two rounds prior.
Houston Astros to win the World Series 16:1 odds – ( level 2) – I called this run of the Astros a few years ago and love this teams makeup. Think about how good they were last year and now they added Giles, get Correa for a full season, Springer will develop and Gomez is going to thrive. Houston’s time is now.
Chicago Cubs to win the World Series 4:1 odds – (level 2) – look I know it’s been 100 years and I know they are the favorites but who doesn’t want a ticket on this powerhouse team. It’s worth a small shot even just to root for them
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 83 wins – (level 4) – I would have taken this bet before the additions. I love a great defensive team with stars like Goldschmidt and Pollack and now you add Greinke and Miller to the mix. They may win 92 and make this an easy win.
Detroit Tigers 4:1 odds to win AL Central – (level 2) – The Tigers still have Miggy and Verlander, they added Zimmerman and Upton and have an owner who will spend and spend. This is good odds considering those factors.
Nolan Arenado to hit the most HRs 23:1 odds – (level 2) – Arenado plays in Colorado and the thin ari, hit 42 last year and is young and getting better. This is all about fantastic value.
NCAA Conference Tournament Picks (for those that like Futures plays)
Villanova Wildcats + 120 to win Big East Tournament – (level 3) –
I thought long and hard about taking the great odds with a hot team like Seton Hall but the reality is that in the preseason I loved this Nova team and they have shown they are easily the class of this conference. Losing to Xavier late in the year should only fuel them here.
San Diego State Aztecs + 120 to win Mountain West Tournament – (level 3) – I follow the Mountain West very closely and while you have the Boise, New Mexico and Fresno backers anyone who has watched knows how much better this Aztecs team is that the field. I’m getting a solid price here.
Virginia Cavs + 300 to win ACC Tournament – (level 3) –
Not only do I think Virginia is the best team in the ACC, I might say they are the best team in the country. I love this defense and they are battle tested and battle tested with success. The odds are too good to pass up.
College Basketball Futures 2015-2016
Villanova Wildcats to win National Championship – 28:1 odds – (level 2) – I took this Nova team last year and was rewarded with a great regular season, a top seed in the tournament and then a disappointing big exit early in the field of 64. This year the core is back and Wright has a ton to prove. I’ll take my chances with a team that very well could be a #1 or #2 seed again at these odds.
Wichita State Shockers to win National Championship – 30:1 odds – (level 2) – This is a team that has gone to the Sweet 16 in 3 of the past 4 years and have two of the top 10 players in the country on their squad. They know the window is closing fast but have two experienced and talented playmakers, a seasoned head coach, and should have another clear path to the Sweet 16 and this year with no powerhouses in front of them could be the year of the Shocker, both literally and figuratively.
Wichita State Shockers to win MVC Conference – -210 odds – (level 4) – same reasons as above and while Northern Iowa is always a threat this is the shockers year as they go for their 3rd straight.
Kansas to win Big 12 – – 120 odds – (level 3) – This is pure history. Well not pure as I also think they have the best coach and best players but you can’t argue with the insane history of dominance Kansas has. Kansas has won 11 straight titles so let’s make it a dozen.
Harvard Crimson to win Ivy League +160 odds – (level 3) – This is not my usual Harvard to win the Ivy’s level 4 play which it’s been in recent years but I still think that the best coach has enough talent to win this year.
NBA Futures Plays :
Boston Celtics Over 41 1/2 Wins – (level 4) – Brad Stevens has made the transition into the NBA seamless and while the Celtics might not have that one star player they have great depth and certainly great coaching, add in the weakness of the East and this is a solid play.
Sacramento Kings Over 30 1/2 Wins – (level 2) – The roster screams dysfunction but it also screams talent. While I am not thinking this Kings team will be anything special I do think that talent wins out most nights and they can get to this reasonable number.
Dallas Mavericks Under 38 1/2 Wins – (level 3) – This Dallas team is old, beat up, and in a tough West headed in the wrong direction. One thing to note will be if they are losing at the end you know Mark Cuban understands losing to get a better draft pick is the way to go.
New York Knicks Under 31 1/2 Wins – (level 2) – New York is a mess and Melo can’t fix all these problems. Derek Fisher and Phil Jackson did little to nothing in the offseason to rebuild this roster and Vegas thinks they will be 17 wins better? I say they are back in the top 10 in the draft.
Los Angeles Lakers Under 30 Wins – (level 2) – If someone told me Kobe would play every game and be healthy this season I’d still be taking this under but we all know he won’t be. They have some nice young talent but they are the thinnest team in the league and once Kobe misses time they could be the worst team in the NBA.
Miami Heat to Win NBA Championship 40:1 Odds – (level 2) – For the record I have the Cavs winning it all this year but getting only 2:1 odds on Cleveland is lunacy. Miami is that team no one sees coming and may actually have a sub pat regular season but I like Whiteside, love Wade come playoff time and think they are deep enough to contend. At these odds this is worth the shot.
NFL FUTURES PLAYS
Colts to win Superbowl – (level 2) – 9:1 odds – I fully expect Indy to have the best record in the AFC and anyone traveling to the dome facing an ascending Andrew Luck will be in trouble. This is the year they take the next step.
Colts to win AFC South – (level 3) – 1:4 odds – Jacksonville? Come on. Tennessee? May be the worst team in the league. Houston is their only worry and they have a new QB, inexperienced coach, lost their star WR and now star RB is down. Enough said.
Chiefs to win AFC West – (level 2) – 5:1 odds – I know Andy Reid can coach, I like Alex Smith, he has weapons in Charles, Kelce and now Maclin with a great defense this team is flying under the radar
Total Team Wins
Tennessee Titans Under 5 1/2 wins – ( level 2) – Rookie QB, uninspiring receivers and RBs, bad o-line, and even worse defense
San Francisco 49ers under 6 wins – ( level 4) – Possibly the worst offseason I’ve ever seen a franchise endure but I wasn’t on board even before that. Losses all over the field and no leadership make them a top 5 draft pick
Carolina Panthers to win SuperBowl – (level 2) – 41:1 – Giving this out on July 26th is quite the risk but why not take a team that looked red hot at the end of the year with these odds.
College Football Futures Plays :
Boise State Broncos Over 10 Wins – (even money) – (level 4) – This is my biggest play of the year. I love what Boise has this season and should go unbeaten in the conference they also play a banged up Washington team and can very well go 12-0.
Wisconsin Badgers to Win the Leaders Division (Big 10) – (+ 300 )– (level 2) – great value for what I think is easily the best team. Sure they lost a lot of talent but this defense is mainly in tact and they produce excellent runners year after year.
Florida State Seminoles to Win the ACC – (+ 250 ) – (level 3) – I am once again very high on Florida State. This team gets no respect year after year and people buying into Clemson just haven’t paid attention to the ACC. Give me the best team at a solid price. (I am also recommending throwing a level 2 play on FSU to win it all at the current 25:1 odds as well)
Michigan State to Win the National Championship – (20:1) – (level 2) – I know everyone loves Ohio State but the Spartans have arguably the best defensive player in the conference and I am a huge fan of a seasoned QB that has his best games when it counts. It would be very easy to pick Alabama, Ohio State or one of the favorites here but these are good odds.
Heisman Trophy Winner – Leonard Fournette – LSU – (13:1) – (level 2) – I think LSU wins the SEC and has a good shot at the National Title if they do it will be on the back, and legs, of Fournette. He is the most talented runner in college and will have to do it against great defenses but he has all the makings at this price to make it worth while. (I would have loved to take Connor Cook here at 25:1 but I doubt he gets the consistent stats)
Futures Plays –
Golden State Warriors – 220 Series Price to Win NBA Championship – (level 3)
MLB Futures Plays :
Marlins 40:1 to win WS – (level 2) – I took this play when I was at the Westgate back in December and still love it. I don’t think they win the division but in a short series with Jose Fernandez back and the addition of Latos this is outstanding value.
Carlos Santana Over 21 Home runs – (level 4) – I had to double check this one 3 or 4 times. Santana has been stuck behind the plate for his career so far and now he won’t have to deal with that, or the subsequent days off it brings. He hit 27 bombs last year and only 6 after the first 50 games when he was being shuffled at catcher. A whole year at 1B and 30 is in range for sure.
Hunter Pence under 158 1/2 hits – (level 2) – Pence will miss the first month plus and that should hurt this total. Pence had 156 hits two years ago healthy and in 162 games had 178 last year. He should miss 20-30 games this year and that will hurt this total.
Brian McCann over 21 home runs – (level 2) – He has 20 or more homers in 7 straight years. Short porch at Yankee Stadium and track record I’ll take the over.
Max Scherzer over 14 1/2 wins – (level 4) – I’m really not sure why this is so low. I think Max wins 20 this year and although it’s a new league the team should be among the best in baseball. He has won 18 and 21 games the past two years and before that 15 and 16. One of the best bets for me.
Gerritt Cole Over 11 1/2 wins – (level 4) – I believe this is the year Cole takes that next step and asking for 12 wins is not a lot. He could be in line for close to 20 if things break right. Cole has won 10 and 11 each of the last two years but has only started 19 and 22 games. With full health this is a layup.
Big 12 – Baylor Bears + 600 – (level 2) – This is just great odds for a team who is red hot entering the tournament with a huge rebounding advantage.
Big East – Villanova Wildcats – 130 – (level 3) – the Cats are the clear best team in the conference and may soon prove to be the best in the country. This is a reason price to pay.
Mountain West – San Diego State + 260 – (level 2) – The Mountain West is wide open but the fact is the Aztecs are the best team and getting a good return here.
ACC – Duke Blue Devils + 160 – (level 2) – Duke is in a virtual home game and you know coach K can smell that #1 seed. Virginia worries me here but Duke so close to home and Anderson coming back slowly gets the edge.
Pending Futures Plays :
Villanova to win Championship – 35:1 odds – (level 2)
Villanova to win Big East – + 175 – (level 3) –Jay Wright has 4 of his 5 starters from last year back and they won 29 games last year.
Wisconsin to win Big 10 – + 175 – (level 3) – This final 4 team could slip up during the year with a target on their backs but they have the best player in the conference and the drive to get back and win it all.
Wesley Saunders Avg. points per game 14 – Over – (level 5) – Saunders is a stud and last year needed to distribute more to Rivard. This year he should lead this exciting scoring team and with Chambers focusing on distributing the ball expect this win. He had 14.2 last year and 16.2 before that.
Perry Ellis Avg. points per game 15 – Over – (level 3) – After losing Wiggins who was at 17 per game last year Ellis who had 14 must pick up the slack here. Expect a huge year.
Chicago Bulls to win Central Division +160 – (level 2) – The Bulls back with Rose and their new pickups could dominate this year while Cleveland should need some time to gel.
Washington Wizards to win Southeast Division + 125 – (level 3) – this team could potentially be playing in the Finals yet are being totally overlooked.
Cleveland Cavs Under 59 wins – (level 4) – like I said above this team might find it hard to gel right away.
LA Lakers Over 30 wins – (level 2) – I still think Kobe has enough left to win a few more games than last season
Memphis Grizzlies Over 49 wins – (level 2) – The Grizz got to this number last year with injuries. They will be healthy and ready this year.
World Series Prop Plays : (as always these are not for the record but for fun)
How many plays will be overturned during the World Series Under 1 (+135) – It will take 2 overturns for us to lose here I think with the best umpires and the rarity that replay is this is a safe underdog play.
Total games in the series Over 5 1/2 ( -130) – I don’t see either team with a massive advantage I’ll take a nice 7 game series here but 6 is fine as well
World Series MVP – Madison Bumgarner 12:1 odds – This is a no brainer. If it goes 7 he will pitch 3 times and at 12:1 it’s a calculated risk.
World Series MVP – Alex Gordon – 12:1 odds – I still say that Gordon is the Royals best player and with 12:1 odds on someone who can get it done in the field and at bat give me the best player on the team.
Washington Nationals to win World Series 8:1 – ( level 3) – The Nats were the hot ticket last year and this season they have only gotten better. Adding Doug Fister will be big but the growth of their young stars even more so. I expect Bryce Harper to take a big leap forward this season as well as Stephen Strasburg.
Washington Nationals to win NL East ( – 150 ) – (level 4) – The Braves are a mess with two starters needing Tommy John surgery and losing McCann and Hudson will hurt the clubhouse. The Mets, Marlins and Philly are battling to just get to .500. This is a two team race that seems to me to be a one team race.
Pedro Alvarez to lead MLB in Home Runs – 20:1 – (level 2) – This is going on a bit of a limb but with these odds I have to take a stab. Alvarez won’t get all the attention because of his bad batting average but he has back to abck 30 homer years and clubbed 36 last season. 40+ seems reasonable here and that puts him in the top 5. The other players with 35+ last year are all at under 10:1 odds so this is value.
Houston Astros Over 62 1/2 Wins – (level 3) – I know this is a scary bet but the Astros are loaded with young talent and a lot of them we will see in the 2nd half of the season. I expect them to still lose 90 + games but they will avoid 100 this year.
Los Angeles Angels to win AL West – + 190 – (level 2) – I am taking a shot with talent alone here. Pujols, Trout and the rest just have too much talent to fail year after year. With the injuries to the Rangers and my uncertainty about Oakland this could prove to be a good play.
Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl Winners – 7:1 odds – (level 2) – I know the history of a repeat champion and I may not have given this out before training camp but the Niners lost a ton over the summer, Sam Bradford went down and the Cards lost some big defensive guys and I can’yt find reasons to not like Seattle.
New England Patriots Super Bowl Winners – 9:1 odds – (level 2) – Sure Brady gets back Gronk and all but this is about Revis, Browner, Mayo and Wilfork all secruing that defense. I think the Pats get back to the big show on the shoulders of a superior D and Brady still has more left in the tank.
Dallas Cowboys to win Under 8 games – (level 4) – I am stunned at this number 8 from a team with the worst defense in the league. I think if everything falls perfectkly for this Cowboys team they might get to 7 -8 wins but they certainly aren’t a 9 win team which is what it will take to lose here.
Jacksonville Jaguars to win Over 5 games – (level 3) – I really like what Gus Bradley is doing in Jacksonville and before you laugh let’s remember how this team grew up over the season and finished 4-4 over their last 8 games. A weak division and easy schedule I think 6 wins is a goal and 7 is not out of the question.
New England Patriots to win AFC East – 300 – (level 3) – This is a huge line but for a reason. Pats have won this division in 11 of the last 12 years and I can’t find a reason to think otherwise yet again.
Chicago Bears to win NFC Central + 300 – (level 2) – Great odds for a team who had an explosive offense and added some key names to a defense this year. Green Bay is looming as the favorite but without Raji they are vulnerable.
Oklahoma Sooners to win NCAA Championship – 8:1 odds – (level 2) –This Oklahoma team has great leadership at the top in Stoops and a very good QB now in Knight. This team got better and more mature as the season progressed ending in an old fashioned butt kicking of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. With these odds, a QB and coach I buy into I’m on the Sooners wagon.
Oklahoma Sooners to win Big 12 Championship – – 150 – (level 3) – Same as above and not terrible odds
Wisconsin Badgers to win Big 10 West – Even Money – (level 4) – Wisky is the Big 10 team no one is mentioning. I would have liked them for the Big 10 title with Ohio State down but Michigan State worries me. I’ll take them to win the West yet again as a good price.
2014 Futures Winner – UConn National Champs 55:1
2014 Futures Winner – Los Angeles Lakers Under 37 Wins
2013 Futures Winner – Harvard Ivy League 1:3
2013 Futures Winner – Cincy Bengals Central + 380
2013 Futures WInner – Florida State ACC + 250
2013 Futures Winner – Wisconsin Over 8 1/2 wins